Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 1.622197 1.839184 2.070457 2.334866 2.628340 2.943630 3.307524
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 1.389197 1.698701 2.050153 2.477057 2.979749 3.550957 4.247136
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.174196 1.543266 1.988221 2.560020 3.270728 4.120098 5.206543
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.043557 1.469347 2.012563 2.748194 3.708950 4.910671 6.515455
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 0.863491 1.305201 1.902213 2.754410 3.923336 5.451961 7.579915
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 0.730946 1.184260 1.832183 2.804715 4.201666 6.105527 8.858886
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 0.611479 1.062169 1.743137 2.816833 4.429355 6.715355 10.142575
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 0.538730 0.998932 1.731052 2.938588 4.826608 7.599075 11.890136
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.470800 0.931566 1.702783 3.031784 5.191679 8.471359 13.702136
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.405480 0.856611 1.650977 3.080276 5.492367 9.275126 15.483885
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.351976 0.792904 1.608498 3.138056 5.813249 10.137736 17.427954
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.292682 0.705864 1.510735 3.086495 5.945448 10.711621 18.966040
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.236887 0.615856 1.396881 2.998265 6.019108 11.221042 20.487156
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.201999 0.563258 1.347510 3.024571 6.301007 12.108382 22.713476
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.168705 0.506074 1.278794 3.003489 6.494028 12.861794 24.780351
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.150695 0.482173 1.277780 3.120398 6.963718 14.148304 27.877398
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.123312 0.425998 1.193581 3.049227 7.056164 14.757949 29.824998
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.104145 0.386950 1.142081 3.041632 7.275714 15.622540 32.301355
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.086774 0.347652 1.081981 3.004918 7.429514 16.373667 34.623810
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.077313 0.330399 1.075338 3.092770 7.858769 17.694291 38.109871
2025-04-27 00:00:00+00:00 0.068163 0.311226 1.059809 3.156707 8.242115 18.953552 41.565081
2025-05-04 00:00:00+00:00 0.058949 0.288571 1.029878 3.179832 8.535470 20.052472 44.781526
2025-05-11 00:00:00+00:00 0.051439 0.269594 1.006777 3.217223 8.865610 21.252493 48.278029